Europe’s Future: Powered by Migration or Weakened by Demographics?

With the median age in Europe now exceeding 44, the continent faces a demographic reality that will definitely shape its future. The strain on healthcare and pension systems is well documented, but there is another pressing challenge that seems to have received  less attention — defence recruitment and national security.

As Europe finds itself increasingly called upon to uphold peace and stability on the continent, the crucial ability to sustain its own defence capabilities has never been more questionable. The shifting geopolitical landscape, marked by rising tensions and the need for greater strategic autonomy, demands that European nations be prepared to meet emerging security challenges. Yet, at precisely this moment, structural weaknesses in Europe’s recruitment to armed forces and law enforcement apparatus  are becoming ever more apparent.

Fewer young europeans  seem to be responding to recruitment campaigns,  and they seem to be  shifting towards sectors seen as more lucrative, less risky, and rich in opportunities. The consequences of this trend are already visible in other critical fields such as healthcare and education, where many European countries are increasingly relying on migrant workers to fill the gaps. However, this same  challenge seems to be now emerging in defence. As European societies evolve, military service is no longer perceived as a desirable career path, and recruitment pools are shrinking at an alarming rate.

If Europe is called to seriously take responsibility for its own security and reduce dependence on external actors, it must confront this reality with extreme urgency. The question isn’t anymore  whether Europe should strengthen its defence capabilities, but whether it will have enough personnel to do so.

The numbers seem to tell a concerning story. In Germany, despite efforts to expand its armed forces, the Bundeswehr’s personnel decreased from approximately 183,050 in 2022 to around 181,500 in 2023 (https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/07/europes-conscription-challenge-lessons-from-nordic-and-baltic-states?lang=en). The trend is similar in the United Kingdom, where the armed forces experienced a net loss of 5,790 personnel in the year leading up to September 2023, with recruitment failing to keep pace with departures (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/26/morality-and-reality-the-key-problems-facing-uk-military-recruiters?utm_source=chatgpt.com). Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, countries such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Romania are struggling to enlist young people into their military forces, while regional security concerns escalate (Reuters). As the geopolitical landscape shifts and new security challenges emerge, Europe’s ability to maintain its own defence capabilities can no longer be taken for granted. Without strategic foresight, the continent may soon lack not only the necessary personnel but also the operational readiness to ensure its security in an increasingly unpredictable world.

At the same time, the discussion around migration has become distorted by misconceptions, unjustified and misplaced fears. Irregular migration is often perceived as inherently criminogenic, reinforcing the inaccurate notion that migrants themselves pose a security threat. Yet, the reality is far more complex. Many of the criminal dynamics associated with migration, such as human trafficking, labour exploitation, and illicit economies, are not driven by migrants but by deeply entrenched indigenous organised crime networks operating within Europe. A Reuters investigation has highlighted how these networks not only facilitate irregular migration but actively exploit the most vulnerable for financial gain, controlling smuggling routes and perpetuating dependency cycles that weaken national security from within (Reuters).

Pushing back on migration as a whole does not address the problem. In fact, it risks exacerbating it. An effective security strategy must acknowledge that migration management is not just about controlling borders, but about  dismantling the influence of organised crime. As Carnegie Europe has pointed out, criminal organisations thrive where governance is weak, where integration policies fail, and where states abdicate their role in managing migration flows strategically (Carnegie Europe). By failing to offer legal, structured migration pathways, governments effectively leave space for smuggling networks to take control, profiting from chaos and insecurity. National security cannot afford to overlook this reality. Countering organised crime must be seen as an integral part of migration management, ensuring that security policies directly attack all networks that exploit and abuse the most vulnerable.

However, security must also be understood in a more comprehensive way—not just in terms of policing and investigations, but also through prevention and resilience-building. Strengthening communities, addressing vulnerabilities, and fostering long-term stability are just as crucial as enforcement. Ensuring a secure and stable Europe requires not only countering criminal networks but also recognising the broader structural factors that shape our security landscape. This broader approach to security deserves deeper discussion—one we look forward to exploring further.

At the heart of this challenge lies a broader question: will Europe continue to frame migration as a problem to be contained, or will it recognise its potential as a strategic resource to be wisely used? Young migrants are already contributing to the economic engine of the continent, filling labour force shortages and sustaining essential public services. But their role can and should extend further. With the right policies, migration could also serve as a means of supporting national security by reinforcing key sectors, including defence, where recruitment shortages are becoming increasingly challenging.

This is not a question of ideology but of strategic necessity. Europe can no longer afford passive responses to demographic shifts, labour shortages, and security challenges. If we are to ensure a future that is secure, competitive, and sustainable, we must start seeing migration not as a threat or liability, but as an asset. Now might be the right time for strategic thinking.